Will China Surpass the USA’s Political Dominance?

October 7, 2025

Will China Surpass the USA’s Political Dominance?

By Ayesha Khan

China has increasingly showcased its immense capabilities when it comes to development, especially from the late 1970s onwards, when it lifted more than 800 million people from extreme poverty. This has been the most significant global reduction of inequality in modern history. As a result, China has sought to improve its international influence through the policies of the Chinese Communist Party. In essence, China has expanded economically and politically through the Belt and Road Initiative, expansion of BRICS (a grouping of the world's leading emerging market economies) and becoming the world’s largest trading powerhouse. Their dominance has threatened the USA’s position as the world’s sole hegemonic power. However, the question remains if China will be able to surpass them to become the world’s leading power? 


A key part of China’s economic and political expansion has been through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) adopted by the CCP in 2013. It seeks to connect Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks through significant infrastructure investment to improve regional integration, increase trade and stimulate economic growth. The initiative defines five significant priorities: policy coordination, infrastructure connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and connecting people. For example, one of the most important projects of the BRI is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which aims to facilitate trade between China and Pakistan, with investments exceeding $60 billion. For instance, the developments to the Gwadar Port have positioned it as a strategic hub for regional trade. It allows China more straightforward access to the Indian Ocean, improving its trade routes to the Middle East and Africa and reducing reliance on the Malacca Strait, as it is increasingly exposed to vulnerabilities from geopolitical tensions. Additionally, China has claimed the initiative has created more than 400,000 jobs within the countries and helped to lift more than 40 million people out of poverty. However, serious concerns are that it burdens developing countries’ finances, as it could push them to economic collapse. Pakistan, for example, has struggled to repay their debt, where one-fourth of it is owed to China. Furthermore, the G7’s PGII, launched in 2022, is a strategic alternative to China’s BRI by offering infrastructure financing to developing countries. It aims to utilise $600 billion by 2027 to fund high-quality and sustainable infrastructure projects worldwide while emphasising financial transparency. This limits China’s ability to use infrastructure investment as political leverage and allows the USA to remain politically dominant alongside Western powers. 


Secondly, China can exert its political dominance by establishing a “Chinese-led bloc” through BRICS, as it is the largest economy. BRICS is an intergovernmental organisation of ten countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the UAE. It has affirmed its commitment to a multipolar world order and called for a new global reserve currency as an alternative to the U.S. dollar. It has developed several projects, such as the New Development Bank (NDB), which began operating in 2014, following criticism of the IMF and the World Bank at the 2012 BRICS summit. It helps provide funding and loans for development projects in emerging economies, and the founding BRICS members pooled $100 billion as the bank’s authorised capital. Alongside the NDB, BRICS launched the Contingency Reserve Agreement (CRA), which provides countries experiencing economic strain with liquid currency. Overall, this exemplifies the political dominance of China, as it’s the most significant contributor to the NDB, holding 20% of shares and providing the largest share ($41 billion) of the $100 billion pool. This means that the nine nations may increasingly align with China’s interests, including limiting the USA’s power, as trading in local currencies, such as China-Russia energy deals, reduces their financial sanctions' effectiveness. Furthermore, BRICS allows China access to more markets, such as Iranian oil and Russian gas, reducing the impact of US trade restrictions. However, despite these developments, no concrete steps have been taken to create a common currency for international trade between member countries. Additionally, this has meant that dollar dependency persists, with 70% of global trade remaining dollar-denominated as there are no viable alternatives. Finally, tensions between India and China have suggested that unified and coordinated action may be lessened to an extent. This means China’s efforts to exert its political dominance over the US might be limited. 


Lastly, it is clear that China is the world’s largest trading nation, which allows it to exert a sense of political dominance through economic collaboration. It accounts for 15% of global exports, surpassing the US, and has maintained a surplus of over $800 million. China can further trade through its key export sectors, which include electronics, machinery and textiles, of which they supply 26%, 17% and 40% of global trade. However, the USA has increasingly seen this as a threat and has imposed several tariffs under Trump’s administration, leading to a US-China “Trade War”. The $550 billion in tariffs since 2018 have disrupted supply chains and had other impacts, as the yuan depreciated to 7.1 per dollar in 2019. Although China is a trading powerhouse, its political dominance, as a result, might be hindered by the efforts of the US. 


In conclusion, China has proved itself capable of overtaking the USA’s position as the world’s sole hegemonic power through the BRI, BRICS, and its global trade. Despite obstacles regarding the G7’s PGII, BRICS’ limitations, and imposed tariffs, it is still possible a new superpower is emerging, though this might take many more years to come.


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