“The countries at the bottom coexist with the 21st century, but their reality is the fourteenth century:civil war, plague and ignorance."This quote by Paul Collier, From the Bottom Billion, captures the stark divide in development between countries from the global south and global north. While some  nations have thrived in the modern economic climate, many countries have become trapped in incessant cycles of instability, underdevelopment and dependence due to a surplus of factors. 

 This essay will explore the global south- using Nigeria as a case study and examine whether it can truly ‘catch up’ with more developed countries. It will examine the systematic issues hindering Nigeria's development and contrast it with Singapore's success story , and evaluate whether the strategies employed by Singapore could realistically be adapted to Nigerian context and beyond whilst highlighting that although ‘catch up’ is theoretically possible, it is contingent on structural  reform.

 Nigeria presents a complex and interesting case. It is an oil-rich nation with the population, economic potential and geographic scale to be a potential global leader not just within Africa but internationally. However its development has been hampered significantly by endemic corruption, exploitation  and mismanagement of resources, and deep rooted socio-political divisions such as tribalism and religious conflict. Emigration levels continue to rise at an alarming rate as citizens seek opportunities abroad, reflecting the widespread disillusionment with domestic prospects whilst decreasing the productive potential of the economy as skilled workers tend to migrate.  Rather than progression towards economic  self sufficiency, Nigeria seems increasingly entrenched in a cycle of dependency, debt and neo colonial patterns of exploitation. 

A fundamental example of this structural dysfunction is Nigeria's oil industry.  Despite being one of the world's largest exporters of crude oil, Nigeria still lacks adequate domestic refining infrastructure. As a result it re-imports refined petroleum products at inflated prices and paradoxically experiences frequent fuel shortages leading to constant cost push inflation. In 2023, refined petroleum products made up 38.3% of Nigeria's  total imports, with a slight drop to 33%  in 2024.

Compounding this irony is the fact that the majority of Nigeria's oil refineries are owned as well as operated by foreign investors such as Shell that do not have the country's best interest at heart and are simply motivated by profit. According to dependency theory , this reflects a classic pattern: resource rich countries in the global south export raw materials cheaply and import finished goods at significantly higher costs, creating structural reliance on wealthier economies and stifling domestic industrial development. The absence of a strong domestic manufacturing base leaves Nigeria's economy extremely vulnerable, volatile and unable to generate sustainable growth in the short and long run. As Collier argues, “the problem is not that globalisation left these countries behind; it's that they have fallen into traps”. This suggests that Nigeria's predicament is not simply a temporary failure, but instead a reflection of deep rooted structural dependencies. Additionally, Nigeria's oil boom has exposed its symptoms of Dutch disease in which  dependence on oil exports has stifled other sectors of the economy such as manufacturing and agriculture . As oil revenues pour in- an influx of foreign currency , the naira appreciates, making it harder for domestic companies and non oil exports to compete globally, further weakening the economies diversity and ability to expand as structural dependence is reinforced.

Conversely, Singapore offers a compelling case of how a country once considered to be part of the global south overcame systematic limitations. At the time of its independence, Singapore faced many of the same challenges  that plague Nigeria today: high unemployment, ethnic division and a lack of a domestic manufacturing industry due to its lack of natural resources. Yet within a few decades, Singapore transformed itself into a global economic hub. Rather than falling into traps of dependency, Singapore adopted an export led development model prioritising foreign investment, human capital development and strong governance. While Nigeria focused on exporting crude oil and importing refined products, Singapore invested in refining its own industrial base of electronics, petrochemicals and financial services allowing it to become an net exporter of value added goods. 

A crucial facilitator in Singapore's exponential economic growth was the leadership of Lee Kuan Yew who understood the importance of creating a stable and investor friendly climate. In his memoir from Third World To First he states that ““We had to make extraordinary efforts to persuade investors that we would not go the way of other Third World countries — nationalised their assets, tax them excessively, and fail to maintain law and order.”. His governance focused on supply side policies such as education and workforce training , laying the groundwork for sustainable, innovation -driven growth. Singapore's success was not simply the result of foreign capital, but of strategic state planning that helped the economy in the short run and the conscious rejection of exploitative short term economic policies.

The concept of ‘catch up’ or convergence theory refers to the process in which less developed economies grow at a faster rate to converge with the income levels, living standards and technological advancements as well as capabilities of more advanced nations. It implies not just GDP growth but also the growth of many sectors of the economy- diversifying the nation from raw material exports to manufacturing and improving  human development indicators such as education,health and infrastructure. In theory catch up is achievable through investment, strategic policy and innovation. In reality however it requires dismantling complex systems of dependency, corruption and misgovernance , which in countries such as Nigeria are linked to political elites and foreign interests making it even harder to overcome and navigate.

Despite being Africa's largest economy by GDP, Nigeria ranks 145th out of 180 countries on the transparency internationals 2023 corruption perceptions index, reflecting the institutional decay riddling Nigeria. Low education systems in majority ethnic groups such as hausa and fulani-reflecting systematic government failure- make it easier for politicians to obtain and maintain power through vote-rigging, disinformation and patronage systems . These political leaders act as pawns for foreign investors and are more concerned about resource extraction than developing the nation. Consequently, policies are driven by short term profit motives rather than sustainable long-term economic growth. Under such governance, Nigeria is unlikely and arguable never going to break free from dependency trap or achieve any substantial catch up as it will continue to function as a pawn in a global economy that prioritises external profit over its own internal progress.

In contrast, Singapore's economic ascent is not solely a result of resources or geography, but fundamentally about visionary leadership. At independence Singapore initially faced similar challenges to nigeria- ethnic division and limited industrial capacity. Against all odds , under leaders who were not blinded by policy myopia and instead focused on robust anti corruption institutions, Singapore rose to become one of the worlds strongest and advanced economies ranking 5th on the 2023 corruption perceptions index with a HDI of 0.939 ranked 9th in the world.

This comparison showcases that whilst countries in the global south such as Nigeria possess the resources, population and potential to catch up with developed nations, such convergence is impossible without radical political reform and leadership unskewed by policy myopia and patronage. Catch up isn't a question of if but instead under what conditions. Imperative to catch up is the willingness to break free from the shackles of corruption, foreign dependence and weak governance. Until then, the concept of catching up will remain a theoretical ambition and not a lived reality.

REFERENCING.

-Books:

Collier, P., 2007. The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Lee, K.Y., 2000. From Third World to First: The Singapore Story, 1965–2000. New York: HarperCollins.

Web Sources:

Transparency International, 2024. Corruption Perceptions Index 2023. [online] Transparency.org. Available at: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023 [Accessed 21 Jun. 2025].

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2024. Human Development Reports: Country Profiles – Singapore and Nigeria. [online] Available at: https://hdr.undp.org [Accessed 21 Jun. 2025].

World Bank, 2024. World Bank Data: Nigeria and Singapore GDP per capita (PPP). [online] Available at: https://data.worldbank.org [Accessed 21 Jun. 2025].

Wikipedia, 2025. Economy of Singapore. [online] Wikipedia. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Singapore [Accessed 21 Jun. 2025].

Wikipedia, 2025. Dutch Disease. [online] Wikipedia. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease [Accessed 21 Jun. 2025].

Videos (YouTube):

Economics Explained, 2022. How Did Singapore Become Rich? [video online] Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfW04skBMAw [Accessed 21 Jun. 2025].

The School of Life, 2017. World Systems Theory, Dependency Theory, and Global Inequality. [video online] Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjzMDCx2vhI [Accessed 21 Jun. 2025].